Griffin 'Strife' Report Update

An update on my last post about the OrlandoSentinel.com blog reporting strife between NASA's administrator Mike Griffin and the Obama space transition team, via Space.com:

"Today, Griffin replied, calling the charges "simply wrong."

"I am appalled by any accusations of intimidation, and encourage a free and open exchange of information with the contractor community," Griffin said. "I would like to reiterate what I have stated in a previous email to all NASA Officials: we must make every effort to 'lean forward,' to answer questions promptly, openly and accurately.""
-"NASA Chief 'Appalled' By Accusations He's Not Cooperating with Obama's Team ", Space.com Staff

For more info on Obama's space transition team, check out the official transition site, Change.gov.

Strife Between NASA's Griffin and Obama Transition Over Constellation? (News)

A report from the Orlando Sentinel describes problems that are arising between the Obama space transition team (headed by a former associate administrator of NASA, Lori Garver) and the current NASA administrator, Mike Griffin:

"In a heated 40-minute conversation last week with Lori Garver, a former NASA associate administrator who heads the space transition team, a red-faced Griffin demanded to speak directly to Obama, according to witnesses.

In addition, Griffin is scripting NASA employees and civilian contractors on what they can tell the transition team and has warned aerospace executives not to criticize the agency’s moon program, sources said."
- "NASA has become a transition problem for Obama", by Robert Block, Orlando Sentinel

It's probably naive to assume that all government relations, especially in a transition where one's legacy could be at stake (Griffin's), are going to be peachy-keen and happy. High-level leaders are always going to have a certain amount of ego, and they're always going to clash (the films "Thirteen Days" and "W." demonstrate the White House Cabinet brand of this pretty well).

The article goes on to illustrate examples that suggest this strife is simply an example of that, and not indicative of actual problems with Constellation that the Obama team would have.

Obama has shown consistent support for Constellation, even getting involved with allowing the NASA purchase of Soyuz craft in the middle of the campaign (with help from Joe Biden), and the article from today mentions an idea from NASA that I think hits the nail on the head (and that I've talked about here before on my own): that the Obama administration “could take ownership of the [Constellation] program and ‘re-brand’ it as their own with minor tweaks.”"

With all the bad news about, the Obama administraion's going to need some good, inspirational PR, and the Constellation program could prove an excellent source for that.

And regardless, even if the Constellation program was (by some strange series of occurances) seriously delayed or cancelled, the probably more-relevant-anyways private sector will still be rolling along, and other countries are going to the Moon (and in my opinion, will win the 'Base Race' anyways; more motivation, with Apollo being 'old hat' here), so mankind's integration and colonization of the Moon will go on, with or without NASA.

President-Elect Obama names Bill Richardson (Space Commerce Supporter) U.S. Secretary of Commerce (News)

One small step by Barack Obama; one giant leap for the private space boom?

Today, President-Elect Barack Obama officially announced Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico as his choice for Secretary of Commerce; Richardson is an outspoken supporter of the idea of private space commerce.

Here's a few telling quotes from Richardson on space, this first one being from a 2006 USA Today article about the spaceport he initiated construction of in New Mexico during his terms as governor (Spaceport America):

""Richardson says he told his aides: "Go after the big one. Go after 5,000 jobs and something to be remembered for. Go after [Sir Richard] Branson and the spaceport. Politicians are known for talking about 9/11 and gloom and doom, and I like to infuse people with visions of the future and space. It's bold and risky, but people turn on to that."'"
-"New Mexico goes a little pie in the sky with spaceport idea", by Kevin Maney, USA Today

'Infusing people with hopeful visions' is definitely in the Obama style, and in his case, Richardson was using the private space industry's possibilties to do that. A preview of future Obama policy, perhaps?

Next is a quote from a Space.com article by Leonard David from late November 2008 about Richardson's space enthusiasm, as it relates to his then-rumored candidacy for the Commerce post:

"Richardson was asked about any possible post he might play in an Obama White House. The New Mexico governor played it a little coy, but said:

"Here's what I want to be sure of ... that the Obama administration is pro-commercial space ... that the administration is pro-space, pro-government space, pro-commercial space," Richardson observed.

Richardson said that "it's in the interest of our national space industry that commercial space could properly develop ... so I will be an advocate wherever I am ... hopefully here, still as governor of New Mexico ... you never know.""
-"Obama Vetting Bill Richardson, Space Enthusiast" by Leonard David, Space.com

So the man who stated he will be a commercial space advocate 'wherever he is' and that believes in 'infusing people with visions of future and space' is now the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, being essentially in charge of guiding the administration's economic policy.

For anyone interested in the development of a private space boom, this is a dream scenario, and a strong indicator that Obama is very serious about some of the things that he stated in his detailed campaign space plan:

"In achieving this vision, Obama will reach out to include international partners and to engage the private sector to amplify NASA's reach. Obama believes that a revitalized NASA can help America maintain its innovation edge and contribute to American economic growth."
-Barack Obama's space plan

Just how much could the private space boom "contribute to the American economic growth"? Here's another quote from the USA Today spaceport article which gives you an idea:

"[New Mexico] should understand this is a long-haul investment," says space business analyst Charles Lurio. "Spaceflight is poised for explosive market growth — analogous to PCs (in the 1970s). But exactly how that growth occurs, and in what form, is as uncertain as it was for PCs in the '70s."

"Explosive market growth", analogous to the now-ubiquitous PCs? That sounds like something America could use right now, and with Obama's appointment of dedicated industry supporter Richardson, it sounds like it's something we could be starting to see in the very near future. :)

What President Obama Means for Moon Colonization and Private Space Policy (Immediate Action?)

A few months back I did an in-depth analysis of Barack Obama's detailed space plan, but now that he is officially the President-Elect of the United States (and therefore, given the timing of his term, one of the most important figures ever in mankind's integration and colonization of the moon; it is within his first four-year term that the Google Lunar X Prize should be won, and that Astrobotic alone has 6 lunar surface missions planned), it's time to take a look at what change he might bring on early on in his administration.

One thing Obama's space plan detailed that we could see forming perhaps even before he takes office, is the return of the National Aeronautics and Space Council (here's an obviously in-progress Wiki article on it's previous incarnations, which were from 1953-1973 and 1989-1993; beyond that, online background is lacking).

"There is currently no organizational authority in the Federal government with a sufficiently broad mandate to oversee a comprehensive and integrated strategy and policy dealing with all aspects of the government's space- related programs, including those being managed by NASA, the Department of Defense, the National Reconnaissance Office, the Commerce Department, the Transportation Department, and other federal agencies."
-Barack Obama's Space Plan

The Council was a White House entity to help coordinate these sorts of agenices, something that is arguably needed more now than it was in the Space Race era, with the booming private space sector (from Armadillo and Astrobotic to Odyssey Moon and Virgin Galactic, with numerous inbetween) being around, as Obama puts it, to "amplify NASA's reach":

"In achieving this vision, Obama will reach out to include international partners and to engage the private sector to amplify NASA's reach. Obama believes that a revitalized NASA can help America maintain its innovation edge and contribute to American economic growth."
-Paragraph 3 of the Obama Space Plan

As has been much discussed, economic growth is something America could use right about now, and so having a council that strengthens coordination of private and government space efforts (something already underway, an example being the agreement between Odyssey Moon and NASA announced just last week) could in turn, strengthen the role in a recovering American economy of a thriving space sector. The council would greatly amplify the 'amplification of NASA's reach'.

"And that's a major debate I'm going to want to convene when I'm president of the United States. What direction do we take the space program in?"
-Barack Obama, on a couple of occasions on the campaign trail

An interesting blog post from an Obama supporter on the official Obama site talked about the idea of a new National Space Council from a political and practical perspective:

"A National Space Council could be critical to advancing such interagency issues on climate change, space communications, technical innovation, and the commercial uses of space. ...We are missing opportunities because no agency is charged with helping space industries in the way that the Federal government helped the infant aviation industry before World War II."
-Blog post by Gary Oleson on the official Obama campaign site

His post also notes that historically, the National Space Council was chaired by the Vice President; Vice President-Elect Joe Biden was as recently as October involved directly in Obama's space policy, as the sponsor of a waiver to allow the U.S. to buy Soyuz craft from Russia until the Orion craft is ready, something Obama spoke in favor of and then became involved with. Biden also was outspoken as a space advocate in the last days of campaign (though I'm sure Florida had something do to with that).

With Obama already starting to put his Cabinet together, we could see movement on the new National Space Council's creation within the next few weeks and months. The space program certainly is something hopeful and inspiring that Obama could mix in with all the grim challenges, which would be politically invaluable, especially if there's a lot of emphasis on the possibilities of lunar policy (with the Moon, of course, visible to every American on a regular basis as an impromptu symbol of hope).

Keep an eye here for frequent updates as Obama's presidential space policy begins to take even further shape, and check out my original analysis of his space plan for more details on that.

Astrobotic Technology Announces Details Galore on Series of Commercial Moon Missions (News)

Today, Astrobotic Technology (a leading contender for the Google Lunar X Prize) announced a new series of missions as part of their commercial efforts.

"Astrobotic will robotically explore the Moon’s high-interest areas on a commercial basis, collecting information required to design future outposts and to answer scientific questions about the Moon and Earth."
-David Gump, President of Astrobotic, from their announcement

As part of the announcement, Astrobotic released a White Paper (a 'white paper' being an a report or guide that addresses problems and how to solve them, typically seen in business and politics) detailing their program and goals.

In addition to their initial effort for the $20 million Lunar X Prize, TranquilityTrek (which, as David Gump told Space.com for their article today, was "very clear" that it was "going to cost more to win the prize than the prize itself"), Astrobotic will follow with five more missions:

• Three polar rovers;
• A lunar lander; and
• A lunar dozer (see below).

Rovers and landers are pretty commonplace ideas, but the 'dozer' was a new one to me. With some digging (excuse the pun), I found an example: NASA's Lunar Chariot prototype, which could build roads, dig trenches, or even mine minerals. There's even some video of it in action, kicking ass and taking names on Earth:

The White Paper has oodles of details on their exact mission plans, particularly the diagram on page 3.

With the X Prize TranquilityTrek slated for Q2 2010, they've got their South pole scout (headed for the rim of Shackleton Crater, long considered a prime location for a moon colony) shooting for Q3 2011, with two more missions (a North Pole scout and a 'Moon Quake 1" seismic and weather collection mission at Shackleton) set for 2012 and an Ice Surveyor mission going deep into Shackleton itself, followed by the Lunar Dozer mission also at Shackleton Rim, both being conducted in 2013.

So, for Astrobotic alone, that's 6 total lunar missions in the next four years. Exciting times. And this, of course (and as the White Paper notes), is just the initial slate. Most or all of the rovers will include HD video broadcasting, it sounds like, so we'll all have a front row seat, to boot.

The general goal of the missions is to build a data library to facilitate other organizations' (e.g., NASA; Barack Obama, in his space plan, talked of "amplifying NASA's reach" with the private space sector) and companies' missions with information for sale, such as detailed terrain maps, allowing future colonial efforts to simply buy the information from Astrobotic at a lower cost that it would take for the efforts to collect the data themselves.

Check out that 4-page White Paper and Astrobotic's site for the full skinny on their efforts, and keep an eye here for frequent updates and analysis as they (and other similar companies, such as fellow Google Lunar X Prize competitor Odyssey Moon, Ltd.) progress rapidly towards their mission slate :)

Bush Signs New NASA Authorization Act: One More Shuttle, Faster Orion (News)

Today, President Bush signed into law a new NASA Authorization Act with some interesting folds in regards to NASA's development, especially in regards to the Space Shuttle program.

The act authorizes $20.2 billion for NASA, including funding for an additional space shuttle flight , originally planned for retirement in 2010.

The gap between the shuttle's retirement and the first flights of the Orion craft in 2014-2015 has created some concern, with the Russian Soyuz being the main stopgap option; recently, a measure was passed in Congress to allow NASA to purchase Soyuz craft (instead of having to piggyback); an interesting side note is that the Soyuz purchase waiver was something that Barack Obama discussed and then became involved with, with his running mate Joe Biden being the sponsor of the waiver. NASA's future is clearly attracting some high-profile attention lately.

The new authorization act also calls for $1 billion in additional funding to accelerate the Orion program.

For the full text of the act, check out the always dependable SpaceRef.com's posting of it here.

NASA Chief Mike Griffin's Interesting 50th Anniversary Comments

Recently, Michael Griffin (Administrator, a.k.a the chief, of NASA) made some interesting comments to the Agency France-Presse (AFP) when discussing the 50th anniversary of NASA and NASA's current state:

"[Christopher Columbus] travelled for months and spent a few weeks in the Americas and returned home. He could hardly have said to have explored the New World. So we have just begun to touch other worlds."

-Mike Griffin, referring to Apollo 11's first walk on the Moon

Mr. Griffin went on to talk about how the explorers of the 15th century set out not knowing exactly what they'd find, and what value it would have. Griffin stated, "We can't prove today that we can exploit what we find to the benefit of humankind", though personally I beg to differ (and so do others more significant than me).

Griffin also expresses support for international cooperation, a subject that was a key contrast between the Obama and McCain space plans (with Obama's plan mentioning it often and McCain's plan never mentioning it).

"The space station is much bigger and better and more impressive and more productive as a result of the partnership with Canada, Russia, Europe, and Japan, than it would have been if we had done it ourselves."

-Mike Griffin

For some more interesting Mike Griffin interviews, check out this Popular Mechanics '10 tough questions' from 2007, and a Space.com grilling from about a month ago on the space shuttle program, changes to it, and the potential impact of that on Constellation. Seems like Mr. Griffin gets some tough gigs with these interviews, haha.

(Note: I think that 8.8mb portrait from NASA of Mr. Griffin is one of the largest images I have ever seen uploaded to the internet.)

Former Director of Kennedy Space Center Joins Odyssey Moon (News)

Odyssey Moon, Ltd. (a high-profile 'private commercial lunar enterprise', and the first official team that was announced for the Google Lunar X Prize) has announced through a media release that Jay Honeycutt, former Director of the Kennedy Space Center, has joined their team as their director of U.S. operations.

"I believe the private sector has an important role to play in a permanent lunar program and Odyssey Moon has put together some pretty impressive people and plans to help make this happen. We look forward to working with NASA and other space agencies as both partners and customers in this effort.”
-Jay Honeycutt

That quote from the media release reminds me of what Barack Obama suggested in his space plan-- 'amplifying NASA's reach' with the private sector. Mr. Honeycutt there is speaking along much the same lines.

Other lunar enterprise companies, such as Astrobotic (also a Google Lunar X Prize contestant), express serving as a partner for government (as opposed to, say, strictly commercial) as part of their goals and general gameplan. It should be interesting to watch as NASA and the private sector mix and mingle further, and to see to what extent NASA ends up partnering with the private sector (and what positive impacts that could have, especially in an era of a lagging economy and potentially squeezed government budgets).

Picture of the Week: Pinch Us

Yes, the Moon Colonization Picture of the Week is of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, President George W. Bush, Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson, and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Christopher Cox. This might not seem on-topic at first, but unfortunately, it very much could be.

The event pictured is the announcement of the financial rescue package being put into place to stabilize the struggling American economy.

This package could potentially become extremely relevant (and rather ominous) to NASA, as this rescue could end up costing the government upwards of a trillion dollars, which in turn could then end up limiting government spending for some time. This crisis, as a result, could then become an eventual bane to NASA's rather large amount of funding (and the particularly pricey Constellation program).

Luckily, there's still other nations and plenty of private enterprise rolling along towards the Moon, so even if NASA takes a hit, the lunar surface should be plenty busy for some time to come. And as a matter of fact, Barack Obama's space plan suggests he may attempt to utilize the private space sector as a way to spur the economy back out of this slump, and so in the end, the American space focus may simply shift, rather than slump; as any slack lost by a NASA spending decline could be readily picked right back up by American private enterprise.

It will be interesting to see how the unfolding of this rescue package ends up shifting America's impact on the base race and the future of development on the Moon.

A Look at John McCain's Space Plan

After recently taking a look at Barack Obama's detailed space plan, it's now time to sit down and take a gander at his counterpart John McCain's own plan for our spacefaring future.

While McCain's plan is only about a third of the length of Obama's (989 words to 3,486), there's still enough information and context that can be discerned from it to give an idea of what a McCain administration's space policy could shape up to be like.

• Batting leadoff is this first-sentence statement : "For the past 50 years, space activities have contributed greatly to US scientific discovery, national security, economic development, and national innovation, pride and power." The placement of "national security" second on that list is notable, and not a surprise given McCain's military background.
• The plan goes on to briefly discuss Sputnik, the reaction to it, and how that led to a dominance in American science and technology, noting: "The end of the Cold War and the space race has greatly reduced the profile of space exploration as a point of national pride...", creating a "degree of 'mission-rut'" for NASA.
• After noting "Much of our communications infrastructure is dependent upon space based assets that are essential to the quality of our everyday lives and the economy", the report goes on to detail how China, Russia, India, Japan and Europe are all "active players" in space exploration.
• McCain then writes briefly about the increasing activity in the commerical sector and mentions the Google Lunar X Prize and space tourism, specifically noting the "importance of investments in key industries such as space to the future of our national security, environmental sustainability, economic competitiveness, and national pride as a technological leader"; again, a distinct foreign policy lean with national security being first on the list and "competitiveness" and "pride" being in there also.
• An entire paragraph is devoted to discussion of the following quote regarding the Nixon administration's mulling of the cancellation of Apollo and non-approval of the Space Shuttle:

"[That policy] ...would be confirming in some respects a belief that I fear is gaining credence at home and abroad: That our best years are behind us, that we are turning inward, reducing our defense commitments, and voluntarily starting to give up our super-power status and our desire to maintain world superiority."

-Casper Weinberger, Office of Management and Budget Deputy Director, 1971

• McCain then states, rather significantly, that "Three and a half decades later this seems equally valid, if not more so given the increased number of countries that are making significant investments in space."

The report then concludes with a little on McCain's contributions to the space program as a Senator and on NASA's current policies and projects.

McCain's last statement about Weinberger's quote, combined with the foreign policy leaning of the plan, clearly illustrates that McCain sees Constellation and the rest of NASA's programs as key to American international standing, prestige, and competitiveness.

This is somewhat of a contrast to Obama's plan, which has a focus that is notably more domestic, primarily discussing the private sector. A perhaps even more notable contrast is that while Obama's plan discusses international cooperation quite a bit, it is something that is not mentioned a single time in McCain's plan.

The differences in the two plans are fascinating, and more than I would have expected, illustrating that this is definitely a subject that both candidates take very seriously, and that they both have their own distinctive styles towards handling.

Barack Obama Outlines Extensive, Detailed Space Plan (News)

Today, presidential candidate Barack Obama has released a new, extensive plan for the future of American space exploration. (John McCain's plan; I'll put up a full analysis of McCain's corresponding plan in the coming days.)

Obama's plan is a big one: a total of 3,486 words and six pages as a PDF (versus McCain's, which has 989 words), with plenty of details and specifics. Some moon colonization-specific highlights:

• This statement, in particular, stuck out to me, in reference to his plan: "...achieving this vision, Obama will reach out to include international partners and to engage the private sector to amplify NASA's reach." That sounds a lot like what companies such as Astrobotic (see bottom of that page) are suggesting is a better system (and are positioning themselves to be the deliverers of): have government agencies utilize private sector companies for services such as data collection, in order to save on costs and spur private sector development. It's very interesting to see such particular wording in Obama's plan: 'amplify NASA's reach'.
• Obama goes on to state that he would reinstate the National Aeronautics and Space Council, originally in operation from 1958 to 1973 and last seen briefly from 1989 to 1992. It would report directly to the president, and "coordinate civilian, military, commercial and national security space activities". This is a very significant idea, that could go a long way in spurring our heels in the Base Race.
• The plan states support for international cooperation, noting NASA's current efforts and that Obama will "not only continue but intensify this effort".
• Specific support is put forward for the prevention of armed conflict in space, with Obama stating he would "work with other nations to develop 'rules of the road'" for "acceptable behavior"; oppose "the stationing of weapons in space"; and work to protect assets from attack and enable rapid recovery from them, specifically noting the Operationally Responsive Space program as a method of this.
• Regarding commercial access to space, Obama says we must "unleash the genius of private enterprise to secure the United States' leadership in space". Now that's a statement.

To summarize, the most significant info one can take from this plan is probably the rather specific nature of his commerical sector statements: "Unleash the genius...", "amplify NASA's reach"... Mr. Obama sounds very serious about spurring the private sector, and his related points in the plan are some of the least generic of report.

Often time, big economic booms in America are spurred by the rise of new industry (the World War II build-up, the 90's internet boom), and with the economy in the state it's in, perhaps Obama sees the potentially explosive commercial space industry as one of the ways out.

NASA Gets a Buzz: Aldrin Speaks Out on the New Space Race (News)

The Telegraph has interviewed Buzz Aldrin, second man on the moon and outspoken advocate of moon colonization, with some interesting results.

"To me it's abysmal that it has come to this: after 50 years of Nasa, and after putting about $100 billion into the space station, we can't get our own astronauts to our space station without relying on the Russians."

-Buzz Aldrin, on the U.S. having to hitch rides on the Russian Soyuz to reach the ISS

Buzz appeals for the next U.S. President to embrace the Vision for Space Exploration (John McCain did so earlier this month) and expressed concern that the U.S. was already falling behind. Last month, according to the interview article, NASA's Constellation head Rick Gilbrecht "that Chinese astronauts were on schedule to get to the moon by 2017 or 2018" (on a manned mission to being work on a base), a good two or three years faster than the U.S. He also criticizes the lack of investment in commercial efforts, and NASA's lack of encouragement of tourist-effort-friendly technologies and policies.

As far as concern over getting to the Moon again before China (as opposed to concern over them actually building a base first), I think it's not really that significant a loss if China puts men/women on the Moon before we do in this century. Getting a base up first would be nice, yes, but nitpicking (for its own sake) on actually setting foot on Luna again first is probably excessive. We already own the record, and whoever comes along next isn't that important; though, Aldrin's concern could be primarily that it would mark the beginning of a trend.

Or, perhaps China getting back to the moon first would do us some good, pinch us out of our sleep. A little kick in the rear might light that patriotic fire is us again (and yes, that's Buzz himself in that last link).

In the meantime, it should be interesting to keep an eye on what ol' Buzz continues to do in his quest of advocacy...

McCain voices support for Constellation program! (Huge News)

On Thursday (the 5th of june), Sen. John McCain (a candidate that some feared would look to cut back NASA's Constellation program as President, which includes their Lunar and Martian base efforts; McCain has mentioned a potential freeze on all domestic discretionary funding) voiced support for NASA's efforts to get a man on Mars, stating that he "would be willing to spend more taxpayer's dollars" essentially as long as NASA 'did a better job of inspiring the public'.

"'I am intrigued by a man on Mars and I think that it would excite the imagination of the American people if we can say, 'Hey, here's what it looks like,' he said.
'We know that now, and here's what may be there and let's all join in that project. I think Americans would be very willing to do that.' "
-Sen. John McCain

McCain's signature thumbs-up now applies to Mars colonization.

Sen. Barack Obama's Education plan includes delaying Constellation by five years in order to fund education, though he has stated:

"I grew up on Star Trek...I believe in the final frontier."
-Sen. Barack Obama

A big part of NASA's Constellation program is to inspire the public, and one of Obama's biggest crutches in the campaign so far as been hope and inspiration, so one could speculate Constellation's mission is solidly within his style.

But, for now, we have confirmation that the less likely supporter of the program (McCain) is entirely for it, which means that no matter who wins in November, Constellation will continue (even if a little delayed) and should go strong for many years.

The 2008 Presidential Candidates+NASA's future

Just came across a brand-new and interesting article from Popular Mechanics about the stance of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John McCain on NASA and America's space future.

Providing a roundup of each, Rand Simberg's analysis ends up with it looking like a McCain presidency in particular could spell delays for NASA (as his plan for reducing the federal deficit includes a potential freeze on all domestic discretionary spending), while Clinton is fairly positive and Obama sounds the most seriously interested in the topic (which is not surprising, considering his style of soaring rhetoric and big dreams), despite his education plan including a bit about cutting back or delaying the Constellation program to pay for education.

With the baby boomer generation retiring and the economy generally in a crunch in the first place, the future of the momentum of the Constellation program looks potentially grim. Of course, the Constellation program is far from the only one out there; both foreign efforts and commercial projects are international enough by their nature to be removed from the woes of America. The Moon can move on without us Americans, in other words, and humanity might not skip much of a beat.

Still, things look pretty good for the American effort. We should at least be a part of the Base Race, though this time, we probably won't finish first.

You never know, though; there's still room for the Emperor of the Moon as a dark horse...